However, anyone with at least five years' experience in dealing with the high-end audio market knows that volatility of one sort or another is the norm. The particulars that contribute to the unrest are always changing, and lately, many of these changes are taking place in the realm of amplifiers.

Somewhat related to the modest resurgence of the LP vinyl record is the market niche carved out by single-ended amplifiers, especially of the vacuum-tubed variety. These seemingly disconnected markets share two qualities that in the ears of many listeners make the difference between a merely enjoyable distraction and the deeply immersing experience that is the most realistic goal of the serious audiophile.

The link between these two product areas is high levels of measurable distortion. Nearly all tubed single-ended amplifiers exhibit THD levels on the order of 2-10%, factors of 10 to 1000 more than even inexpensive receivers. LP's also measure terribly when compared to their CD counterparts.

Why then the extreme devotion to the LP and the single-ended amp in some rarefied listener circles? Because the ratio of harmonic distortion displayed by LP playback and single-ended amplifiers is subjectively pleasant to the human ear. Fans of the LP and mostly higher-priced single-ended equipment do not make a priority of engineering parameters, preferring a very musical result with a host of measurable flaws. Most studies of these subjective phenomena concur in that even order harmonics, which characterize single-ended gear, contribute to an almost drug-induced effect on the listenter, belying the distortion levels. As to the LP, it is perhaps the fact that the stylus traces a continuous path through the analog grooves (free of switching and other types of subtle low-level problems inherent in the current mode of CD playback) that gives the impression of realism, most notably on vocal material.

This dual trend, considered a step backward by many, is but one way that the audiophile community is registering its dissatisfaction with the status quo, i.e., solid state separates with gobs of power, narrow bandwidth CD sources, and large, inefficient, multi-driver loudspeakers. With low-powered, single-ended hardware, horn-type speakers have sold fairly well, has have other types of high-efficiency designs.

Other advents in the markets include a light-weight, 1000 watt digital Class D amplifier, which for less than $3500 may send the conventional solid state amplifier market on its proverbial ear. This machine is highly efficient as well, dispersing a very high percentage of the power it draws from the wall into power at the speaker terminals. Thus, it offers extraordinarily clean, cool, fast power. Early reports on this machine indicate that it may indeed represent the first of the next generation of nearly all-digital electronics.

Yet another prospect to consider is the future of the digital versatile disc (DVD). Certainly, the new format will be utilized mostly as an audio/video format, but the potential for audio-only use is very compelling, at least from a technical point of view. The problem is that the current CD format continues to satisfy perhaps 95% of the market, so where is the incentive for the major hardware and software manufacturers to change? But all formats have a natural life cycle, and if a slowing in CD sales can be remedied by tooling up for a technological switchover, the big companies will have to make a concerted push in that direction. But when might this be? When might one's CD hardware be rendered obsolete? There are two answers.

Look for smaller, vanguard organizations such as Chesky, perhaps, to experiment with the DVD. Undoubtedly, efforts by audiophile labels will receive plenty of publicity and the big firms are sure to notice any trend in consumer awareness. Then, perhaps in late 1997 or 1998, expect a consortium of big firms to decide one way or the other on whether or not DVD warrants full-scale audio-only catalog releases.

Of course, such a change would take years to effect, but a new wave of higher definition source equipment would emerge very quickly. If the major companies decide not to move on the audio-only disc in 1997-1998, in either multi-channel or stereo form, this will remove but one large variable in a fast-changing market. Look instead at improvements in material technology, e.g., ceramic speaker drivers, inert speaker cabinets at low cost, etc., to fuel the audiophile's appetite for the latest and greatest in hi-fi.